China publishes its timeline for landing astronauts on the Moon before 2030

According to Ars Technica (article by Eric Berger, November 2, 2026), officials from China's space program confirmed over the weekend that the country plans to put astronauts on the lunar surface in less than three years. They did so at the Seventh Manned Spaceflight Conference, held in Beijing. Among the speakers was Wang Xiang, chief designer of the lunar exploration program. The details are the most comprehensive China has made public so far about the series of missions leading to a crewed landing “before 2030.”

The mission architecture is reminiscent of Apollo: it will use lunar-orbit rendezvous, as NASA did in the 1960s and early 1970s. China does not have a rocket as powerful as the Saturn V, so the crew and the lander will be launched separately toward the Moon.

The timeline, according to slides shared on social media, has four milestones:

1. An uncrewed test of the Long March 10A rocket, a single-core variant without side boosters, carrying the Mengzhou spacecraft into low Earth orbit. Target: early 2027.

2. An uncrewed test of the full Long March 10 (core plus two boosters) with the Lanyue lunar lander, which would include descent to and ascent from the Moon's surface. Target: 2028.

3. A simultaneous launch of two Long March 10 rockets, one carrying an uncrewed Mengzhou and the other the Lanyue, which will dock in lunar orbit. Target: 2029.

4. A dual launch of Long March 10 rockets, this time with astronauts aboard the Mengzhou, for the crewed landing mission. Target: “before 2030.”

One notable detail is that, at least for now, the plan skips a mission like Apollo 8 or Artemis II, that is, a crewed flight that reaches the Moon, enters orbit or flies by, and returns. Even so, the Mengzhou will fly with people aboard on missions to Tiangong, China's space station in low Earth orbit.

The article frames this as a race. NASA aims to land on the Moon in 2028, roughly a year ahead of China. The United States has spent 15 years working on the Space Launch System rocket and even longer on the Orion spacecraft, so it has a more mature rocket and crew vehicle. However, there are major questions about the lunar lander, for which SpaceX and Blue Origin hold multibillion-dollar development contracts. Depending on how those projects progress, the article suggests the US landing could slip to 2030 or later.

The Chinese program is largely opaque, and outside observers find it nearly impossible to know its internal technical milestones. Still, the piece argues that the country is making credible progress toward the Moon. As examples, it notes that in August 2025 the China Manned Space Agency successfully tested a high-fidelity mockup of the 26-ton Lanyue lander. The test used large cables to simulate lunar gravity while the vehicle fired its main engines and fine-control thrusters to land on and take off from a cratered surface near Beijing. In addition, the Mengzhou spacecraft slated for the 2027 test atop a Long March 10A has already arrived at the Wenchang launch center in Hainan, from where it will lift off.

In the United States, Congress and the White House have given NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman broad latitude over the past 12 months to speed up the Artemis program. According to the article, Isaacman canceled the Lunar Gateway station and the planned upgrades to the SLS rocket. Last week he also announced that NASA will help Blue Origin develop its lunar lander, looking for a way to propel the Orion spacecraft into low lunar orbit. He said at the time: “We have the mandate, we have the resources and the support of our stakeholders to be able to execute, and that's what we intend to do.”

Beyond the near-term competition, both NASA and China's space program are building capabilities for a lasting presence at the lunar south pole. In that second phase of the contest, Isaacman has committed NASA to developing a base on the lunar surface over the next decade.

Reader's note: the timeline comes from presentation slides shared on social media, and the article itself cautions that it is very difficult to independently verify the actual technical progress of China's program.