OpenAI and Anthropic diverge in investors' eyes: demand concentrates on whoever dominates enterprise, says Newcomer

By Newcomer (Substack) · November 4, 2026.

OpenAI's and Anthropic's fundraising campaigns show diverging trajectories, according to journalist Tom Dotan's analysis in Newcomer. His thesis, based on conversations with investors who have backed both companies and are weighing participation in the current rounds: Anthropic is pulling away from its rival, and OpenAI is looking for a comeback story.

The article is behind a paywall and only the opening is accessible. What follows relies solely on that excerpt and on the subtitle, which speaks of "lukewarm" interest in OpenAI's latest funding and of Anthropic's enterprise dominance. We do not know the figures or details in the rest of the piece.

According to one of those investors, who is not named, there is "infinite" demand for Anthropic shares among long-term investors such as mutual funds. The same investor argues that the company is "steamrolling" ahead in a difficult environment. They also expect the planned IPO to happen before Thanksgiving. This is the opinion of an anonymous source, not a confirmed fact or a timeline announced by the company.

The political context adds pressure. Newcomer notes that the climate will be tougher after the Democratic victory in Tuesday's midterm elections. In its view, the fact that Anthropic has been friendlier to Democrats than the rest of the industry does not hurt it.

**Our take.** What is interesting is what the market appears to be rewarding. If Newcomer's thesis is correct, investors are paying for recurring, predictable enterprise revenue, not for a large consumer user base. It is a sign of the industry's maturity: value is shifting from the flashiest model to whoever gets businesses to integrate it and pay for it.

There are also caveats. Investor testimonials in the middle of a fundraising campaign carry self-interest, because whoever talks about "infinite demand" helps create it. And the "comeback" versus "steamrolling" narrative shifts quickly in an industry where a single model launch can change sentiment within weeks. As industry context, Anthropic's enterprise edge already showed up in our coverage of its S-1, which stood out for its candor about risks such as energy dependence and margins.

That is why it is worth separating two things. The first is market valuation, which reflects expectations. The second is proven capability, which will show up in quarterly reports. That competition between labs is decided by real enterprise utility, and not just headlines, is fundamentally good news: it pushes the technology toward productive uses, which is the path to long-term abundance. In the short term, that same concentration of capital and power in two or three companies warrants scrutiny.

It remains to be seen whether the IPO happens within the timeframe that investor suggests and what figures OpenAI shows in its round. Until then, this is a reading of investor sentiment, not a verdict on who has the best technology.