Musk, angry voters and AI backlash: what's at stake in the 2026 US midterms

Advance notice: the downloaded text shows a notice that the article is exclusive to Business Insider subscribers. Even so, it includes an extensive summary of the issues and the races. This analysis is based solely on that content. The short headline the link arrived with ("Angry constituents could derail Elon Musk's Republican bets") does not match the source label that accompanied it, which referred to "reverse game theory" and AI agents. The downloaded article is about the 2026 midterm elections.

The piece's thesis is that Americans are angry about the cost of living and that the midterms will show who else pays the political price alongside President Donald Trump. According to the article, Trump is so unpopular that the map of competitive races extends to Texas, Ohio and even Kansas. Democrats could wrest control of Congress from Republicans. With just one chamber, the authors say, they could open investigations that would affect the tech and business elite who cozied up to Trump before his return to power. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has already made clear he is ready to fight.

The first theme is the cost of living. According to an October Gallup poll cited by the article, most registered voters consider the economy very or extremely important to their vote. Some 42% say the same about gas prices. The piece says Americans are paying more at the pump than a year ago because the Iran war has driven prices up. It also notes that consumer spending remains strong, though partly because higher prices inflate nominal totals. In addition, prices have risen faster than average hourly wages for six consecutive months, meaning inflation is eating into wage gains.

The second theme is the backlash against AI, especially data centers. The polls cited indicate that AI is not the main issue in this election, but asking a voter about a data center in their community often triggers a strong reaction. Candidates from both parties are competing to portray their rivals as too friendly to data center construction. Some voices in the tech sector fear this backlash will intensify once the 2028 presidential primaries get underway.

The third theme is Musk's financial bet. The article says he has donated at least $448 million, a record figure, of which more than $215 million has gone to America PAC, his allied super PAC. Part of his contributions has been redirected to support Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's Senate campaign. Polls, according to the piece, indicate Paxton is at risk of losing, which would make it much harder for Republicans to hold their majority. Musk reportedly gave $158 million to the super PAC allied with Senate Republicans, which in turn funded a pro-Paxton super PAC. Thanks in large part to that money, the Texas race is now the most expensive non-presidential campaign in U.S. history. Democrat James Talarico accuses Musk of trying to buy the seat. Musk, for his part, uses X to criticize Democrats and back Paxton, and on October 30 wrote that it would be "game over for America" if Republicans lose ground before 2028.

The article lists other major donors. Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, founders of Uline, have contributed $150 million, mostly to Restoration of America, a pro-Republican super PAC. Jeff Yass, co-founder of Susquehanna International Group, has donated $110 million, including $30 million to a group backing Vivek Ramaswamy's bid for Ohio governor. George Soros has given $102 million, mostly to Democracy PAC, which supports Democratic candidates. Google co-founder Sergey Brin has contributed another $102 million, not to federal candidates but to stop California's proposed one-time 5% billionaire tax. Ben Horowitz and Marc Andreessen have given more than $92 million combined, mostly to a super PAC backing candidates friendly to the AI industry. OpenAI president Greg Brockman and his wife Anna have donated $50 million, half of it to the same pro-AI super PAC.

The piece then reviews the key races, five of which the Cook Political Report rates "Toss-Up":

• Ohio Senate: Democrat Sherrod Brown criticizes Republican Sen. Jon Husted's past support for data centers. Husted says the decision should rest with communities and that he no longer supports tax incentives for new centers. Cook rates it "Toss-Up."

• Texas Senate: Paxton, backed by Musk's money, faces Talarico in a race rated "Toss-Up."

• Michigan Senate: Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed follows Bernie Sanders' line. He wants government stakes in frontier AI labs and for companies such as Microsoft to divest their holdings in giants like OpenAI, something the piece considers unlikely to succeed. Republican Mike Rogers calls for a pause on data center development in the state. Cook rates it "Toss-Up."

• California wealth tax: despite opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom, backers managed to put a one-time 5% tax on fortunes above $1 billion on the ballot. California would be the first state to impose it. The result could take days to be known. Brin and other opponents back competing initiatives that, if they get more votes, would end up neutralizing the tax.

• Michigan's 7th District: Republican Tom Barrett faces William Lawrence, co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, who ties him to a $1 billion hyperscale data center near Mason. Lawrence advocates a moratorium. Barrett prefers to let local authorities decide. Cook rates it "Toss-Up."

• Ohio's 9th District: Democrat Marcy Kaptur criticizes Republican Derek Merrin for voting in favor of tax incentives for data centers. Merrin says she is lying. Cook rates it "Lean Democrat."

• Pennsylvania's 1st District: Democrat Bob Harvie devoted his first general-election ad to calling for a moratorium and criticizes Republican Brian Fitzpatrick's past support for a large Amazon data center. Cook rates it "Toss-Up."

• Wisconsin's 3rd District: Democrat Rebecca Cooke backs a federal moratorium, like Sanders. Republican Derrick Van Orden accuses her of being too close to tech groups. Cook has moved it to "Lean Democrat."

Overall, the article portrays an election in which frustration over prices mixes with growing distrust of AI infrastructure. The tech elite's money is highly visible, and Musk is personally betting on preserving the Republican majority, but he faces angry voters who could thwart that bet.