Anthropic's S-1: solid diversification, but slowing growth against a valuation of up to $2 trillion

By The Globe and Mail (Motley Fool article) · October 31, 2026.

Anthropic has published its IPO prospectus (the S-1 filing with the U.S. regulator, running more than 400 pages). According to the outlet, the offering could raise up to $100 billion at a valuation of up to $2 trillion. It is worth noting that the article is a syndicated Motley Fool opinion piece, and that The Globe and Mail states it has not reviewed it.

The most solid data point, according to the prospectus: 79% of third-quarter revenue (for the quarter ended September 30) came from customers outside the top five. No customer accounted for more than 10% of revenue in the first nine months of the year. At the end of 2023, by contrast, two customers made up 54% of the total. In addition, more than 11,900 customers had spent over $100,000 in the past 12 months.

The disappointing data point: Anthropic does not give the exact quarterly figure, but it does give a multiple. Its third-quarter revenue was 86 times that of the fourth quarter of 2024, which totaled $197 million. That yields an approximate figure of $16.9 billion, a calculation by the article's author rather than a figure reported by the company. That represents 47% growth over the second quarter, compared with the 144% the second quarter grew over the first.

Valuation is at the center of the debate. Charu Chanana of Saxo Markets notes that more than $2 trillion would equal about 30 times annualized quarterly revenue. Investors will also have to digest enormous infrastructure commitments. Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson attributes the slowdown to competition from frontier models such as OpenAI's and from open-weight models, not to a drop in AI demand.

**Our take.** I believe the concentration figure matters more than the slowdown figure. Going from two customers accounting for 54% to a base where no one exceeds 10% indicates that demand is structural and does not hinge on a couple of contracts. That is what distinguishes a technology being adopted from an order bubble.

The slowdown, for its part, is largely arithmetic. Growing 47% in a quarter on an already enormous base is extraordinary in any industry. Going from 144% to 47% was predictable. What is a real signal is Luria's argument: competition and open-weight models are compressing prices and margins. It is a thesis we have long advocated, and on balance it is good news: the open frontier makes capability cheaper and more democratic.

The loser in this tension is the investor who buys the narrative without looking at the price. The winner, in the long term, is the user: cheaper, more capable models. The short-term risk is twofold: a market demanding returns on gigantic infrastructure investments, and an IPO that, as the author notes in comparing it with SpaceX's June debut, may struggle after its first day of trading. The author's guideline ($1.5 to $2 trillion raised) is his conjecture, not a data point.

For the horizon of abundance we advocate, the question is not whether Anthropic is worth $2 trillion, but whether the compute capacity this IPO funds translates into real advances, such as science, medicine and productivity, at an ever lower cost. That is the metric that will still matter months from now, far more than the multiple on debut day.